Book Review: “The End of Cheap China” by Shaun Rein

Sensationalist stories about China’s supposed looming economic collapse captivate international headlines. While these articles might be entertaining to read or talk about, they nevertheless perpetuate an inaccurate picture of an evolving Chinese economy. The really big China story is perhaps too mundane for editors looking for catchy headlines. That is, the emergence of the largest middle-class in the world- beginning with Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening up in 1978 and still being written today.

Upon my own arrival to China nearly five years ago, it became clear fairly quick that the younger generations living in urban areas would not be content to continue working in low-wage factories and construction sites forever. Following a similar arc of modernization and urbanization that developed countries went through in the past, albeit at a much accelerated rate, China ambitiously aims to move up the value chain economically.

This development is not easily grasped for those who haven’t had the opportunity to invest significant time interacting with people on the ground in China. Luckily we have Shaun Rein and his book The End of Cheap China to tell us the story of China’s evolving trends. The book was released in 2012, but the predictions Rein makes are perhaps even more relevant today than when it originally came out two years ago. Continue reading

Local Debt Adding Fuel to Bearish Outlook on China

Credit rating agency Moody’s recently released a report claiming that Chinese financial auditors have understated local government debt by half a trillion dollars. This is no small estimate, and the thought of so many non-performing loans on bank balance sheets is enough to make any seasoned investor bearish on China.

Of course, the majority of debt is fueled by lending that is going to local provincial and municipal governments and developers to fund new infrastructure and building projects. Banks are making these loans because of direct orders from the top-level of China’s central government. These orders were stepped up significantly after the 2008 world financial crisis to keep the country’s growth engine humming along as the export market fell off a cliff. Continue reading

Post G-20 Hangover: Trade Wars, Currency Manipulation & More

Downtown Seoul

The G-20 meeting in Seoul earlier this month left in its wake a trail of uncertainty regarding the state of the global economic system. The U.S. received its fair share of criticism over its ‘QE2’ quantitative easing measure. ‘Quantitative easing’ is  essentially akin to the Federal Reserve Bank printing more money. The goal here is to help stimulate job growth in the U.S. by weakening the dollar. Forbes columnist Shaun Rein explains why quantitative easing might actually be  a terrible mistake.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner denies the U.S. is manipulating its currency while continually berating China over the low valuation of its RMB. With QE2, the United States can no longer taker the moral high-ground because it has now entered the currency devaluation game. The intent of QE2 is to try to direct investment and job growth back to the U.S. but it will probably have the opposite effect: lowering the standard of living of American by causing inflation. Continue reading

China, America, Paul Krugman

Every few months, Nobel Prize winning economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman writes an opinion piece lambasting China for ‘manipulating’ its currency, the renminbi (RMB). Whenever he brings this particular issue up, Krugman argues that China is undermining America’s (and other countries) manufacturing competitiveness.

I have responded to Krugman’s previous commentaries about the Chinese currency issue before (U.S. – China Trade Complications) and discussed why letting the RMB float will not bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. Krugman doesn’t seem to be getting the message based on yet another  Op-Ed he penned titled China, Japan, America. Continue reading